The Impact of New Trends in Satellite Launches on Orbital Debris Environment

The main goal of this study is to examine the impact of new trends in satellite launch activities on the orbital debris environment and collision risk. Starting from the launch of the first artificial satellite in 1957, space borne technology has become an indispensable part of our lives. More than 6,000 satellites have been launched into Earth orbit. Though the annual number of satellites launched stayed flat for many decades, the trend has recently changed. The satellite market has been undergoing a major evolution with new space companies replacing the traditional approach of deploying a few large, complex and costly satellites with an approach to use a multitude of smaller, less complex and cheaper satellites. This new approach creates a sharp increase in the number of satellites and so the historic trends are no longer representative. As a foundation for this study, a scenario for satellite deployments based on the publicly announced future satellite missions has been developed. These constellation-deploying companies include, but are not limited to, Blacksky, CICERO, EROS, Landmapper, Leosat, Northstar, O3b, OmniEarth, OneWeb, Orbcomm, OuterNet, PlanetIQ, Planet Labs, Radarsat, RapidEye Next Generation, Sentinel, Skybox, SpaceX, and Spire. Information such as the annual number of launches, the number of orbital planes to be used by the constellation, as well as apogee, perigee, inclination, spacecraft mass and area were included or approximated. Besides the production of satellites, a widespread ongoing effort to enhance orbital injection capabilities will allow delivery of more spacecraft more accurately into Earth orbits. A long list of companies such as Microcosm, Rocket Lab, Firefly Space Systems, Sierra Nevada Corporation and Arca Space Corporation are developing new launch vehicles dedicated for small satellites. There are other projects which intend to develop interstages with propulsive capabilities which will allow the deployment of satellites into their desired orbits beyond the restrictions of the launch vehicle used. These near future orbital injection technologies are also covered in the developed scenario. Using the above-mentioned background information, this study aims to examine how the orbital debris environment will be affected from the new dynamics of the emerging space markets. We developed a simulation tool that is capable of propagating the objects in a given deployment scenario with variable-sized time-steps as small as one second. Over the course of the run, the software also detects collisions; additional debris objects are then created according to the NASA breakup model and are fed back into the simulation framework. Examining the simulation results, the total number of particles to accumulate in different orbits can be monitored and the number of conjunctions can be tracked to assess the collision risks. The simulation makes it possible to follow the short- and long-term effects of a particular satellite or constellation on the space environment. Likewise, the effects of changes in the debris environment on a particular satellite or constellation can be evaluated. It is authors hope that the results of this paper and further utilization of the developed simulation tool will assist in the investigation of more accurate deorbiting metrics to replace the generic 25-year disposal guidelines, as well as to guide future launches toward more sustainable and safe orbits

Modulating Retro-Reflectors: Technology, Link Budgets and Applications

Satellite communications systems today -- usually radio frequency (RF) -- tend to have low data rates and use a lot of on-board power. For CubeSats, communications often dominate the power budget. We investigate the use of modulating retro-reflectors (MRRs), previously demonstrated on the ground, for high data-rate communication downlinks from small satellites. A laser ground station would illuminate a retro-reflector on-board the satellite while an element in the retro-reflector modulates the intensity of the reflected signal, thereby encoding a data stream on the returning beam. A detector on the ground receives the data, keeping the complex systems and the vast majority of power consumption on the ground. Reducing the power consumption while increasing data rates would relax constraints on power budgets for small satellites, leaving more power available for payloads. In the future, this could enable the use of constellations of nano-satellites for a variety of missions, possibly leading to a paradigm shift in small satellite applications

Orbital Debris-Debris Collision Avoidance

We focus on preventing collisions between debris and debris, for which there is no current, effective mitigation strategy. We investigate the feasibility of using a medium-powered (5 kW) ground-based laser combined with a ground-based telescope to prevent collisions between debris objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO). The scheme utilizes photon pressure alone as a means to perturb the orbit of a debris object. Applied over multiple engagements, this alters the debris orbit sufficiently to reduce the risk of an upcoming conjunction. We employ standard assumptions for atmospheric conditions and the resulting beam propagation. Using case studies designed to represent the properties (e.g. area and mass) of the current debris population, we show that one could significantly reduce the risk of nearly half of all catastrophic collisions involving debris using only one such laser/telescope facility. We speculate on whether this could mitigate the debris fragmentation rate such that it falls below the natural debris re-entry rate due to atmospheric drag, and thus whether continuous long-term operation could entirely mitigate the Kessler syndrome in LEO, without need for relatively expensive active debris removal.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication in Advances in Space Researc

CubeX: A Compact X-Ray Telescope Enables Both X-Ray Fluorescence Imaging Spectroscopy and Pulsar Timing Based Navigation

This paper describes the benefits of a miniaturized X-ray telescope payload in the context of a lunar mission. The first part describes the payload in detail, the second part summarizes a small satellite mission concept that utilizes its compact form factor and performance. The CubeX instrument can be used for both X-ray fluorescence (XRF) imaging spectroscopy and X-ray pulsar timing based navigation (XNAV). Using our recent technological advances in X-ray optics and sensors, CubeX combines high angular resolution (<1 arcminutes) Miniature Wolter-I X-ray optics (MiXO) with a common focal plane consisting of high spectral resolution (<150 eV at 1 keV) CMOS X-ray sensors and a high timing resolution (< 1 usec) SDD X-ray sensor. This novel combination of the instruments enables both XRF measurements and XNAV operations without moving parts. The high angular resolution of the MiXO opens a wide range of orbital configurations for observation. Given that performance, the instrument has unprecedented small volume (~116U), mass (<6 kg), and power (<9W) requirements and opens a wide range of applications for a variety of targets and missions including NEOs and Martian moons. In this paper we illustrate one potential application for a lunar mission concept: The elemental composition of the Moon holds keys to understanding the origin and evolution of both the Moon and the Earth. X-ray fluorescence (XRF), induced either by solar X-ray flux or energetic ions, carries decisive signatures of surface elemental composition. X-ray observations, therefore, give a unique, powerful diagnostic tool for remotely determining elemental abundances including major rock forming elements such as Mg, Al, Na, Si, Fe, and Ca. Through high-resolution XRF imaging spectroscopy, CubeX searches for small patches of elusive lower crust and mantle material excavated within and around impact craters. CubeX identifies regional compositional variations and allows straightforward comparison of elemental distributions with the surface topography from LRO and the gravity data from GRAIL. The elemental compositions of the lower crust and the mantle are sensitive to the conditions of the giant impact which led to the Moon's formation and the subsequent lunar magma ocean (LMO), and thus they are key missing pieces in understanding the formation and early evolution of the Moon. In between XRF observations, CubeX also leverages the technology of high resolution X-ray imaging and time series measurements to conduct XNAV operations and evaluate their performance. Deep space navigation is a critical issue for small planetary missions. XNAV can enable low-cost autonomous deep-space navigation, and has the potential to greatly assist, or even outperform, NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN) or ESA's European Space Tracking (ESTRACK). CubeX is designed to perform sequential observations of 3-4 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) to solve the spacecraft trajectory for absolute navigation, and explore the remote sensing capability of XNAV. In the presented mission concept, the Moon's relative proximity enables a straightforward evaluation of the XNAV performance through DSN

LightForce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Assessment on an Entire Catalogue of Space Debris

The potential to perturb debris orbits using photon pressure from ground-based lasers has been confirmed by independent research teams. Two useful applications of this scheme are protecting space assets from impacts with debris and stabilizing the orbital debris environment, both relying on collision avoidance rather than de-orbiting debris. This paper presents the results of a new assessment method to analyze the efficiency of the concept for collision avoidance. Earlier research concluded that one ground based system consisting of a 10 kW class laser, directed by a 1.5 m telescope with adaptive optics, can prevent a significant fraction of debris-debris collisions in low Earth orbit. That research used in-track displacement to measure efficiency and restricted itself to an analysis of a limited number of objects. As orbit prediction error is dependent on debris object properties, a static displacement threshold should be complemented with another measure to assess the efficiency of the scheme. In this paper we present the results of an approach using probability of collision. Using a least-squares fitting method, we improve the quality of the original TLE catalogue in terms of state and co-state accuracy. We then calculate collision probabilities for all the objects in the catalogue. The conjunctions with the highest risk of collision are then engaged by a simulated network of laser ground stations. After those engagements, the perturbed orbits are used to re-assess the collision probability in a 20 minute window around the original conjunction. We then use different criteria to evaluate the utility of the laser-based collision avoidance scheme and assess the number of base-line ground stations needed to mitigate a significant number of high probability conjunctions. Finally, we also give an account how a laser ground station can be used for both orbit deflection and debris tracking

CubeX: A Compact X-ray Telescope Enables Both X-ray Fluorescence Imaging Spectroscopy and Pulsar Timing Based Navigation

This paper describes the miniaturized X-ray telescope payload, CubeX, in the context of a lunar mission. The first part describes the payload in detail, the second part summarizes a small satellite mission concept that utilizes its compact form factor and performance. This instrument can be used for both X-ray fluorescence (XRF) imaging spectroscopy and X-ray pulsar timing-based navigation (XNAV). It combines high angular resolution (\u3c 1 \u3earcminutes) Miniature Wolter-I X-ray optics (MiXO) with a common focal plane consisting of high spectral resolution (keV) CMOS X-ray sensors and a high timing resolution (\u3c 1 μsec) SDD X-ray sensor. This novel combination of the instruments enables both XRF measurements and XNAV operations without moving parts, in a small form factor (~1×1×6U

LightForce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Updated Efficiency Analysis Utilizing a Highly Parallel Simulation Approach

This paper provides an updated efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme. LightForce aims to prevent collisions on warning by utilizing photon pressure from ground based, commercial off the shelf lasers. Past research has shown that a few ground-based systems consisting of 10 kilowatt class lasers directed by 1.5 meter telescopes with adaptive optics could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. Our simulation approach utilizes the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue in LEO for a given day as initial input. Least-squares fitting of a TLE time series is used for an improved orbit estimate. We then calculate the probability of collision for all LEO objects in the catalogue for a time step of the simulation. The conjunctions that exceed a threshold probability of collision are then engaged by a simulated network of laser ground stations. After those engagements, the perturbed orbits are used to re-assess the probability of collision and evaluate the efficiency of the system. This paper describes new simulations with three updated aspects: 1) By utilizing a highly parallel simulation approach employing hundreds of processors, we have extended our analysis to a much broader dataset. The simulation time is extended to one year. 2) We analyze not only the efficiency of LightForce on conjunctions that naturally occur, but also take into account conjunctions caused by orbit perturbations due to LightForce engagements. 3) We use a new simulation approach that is regularly updating the LightForce engagement strategy, as it would be during actual operations. In this paper we present our simulation approach to parallelize the efficiency analysis, its computational performance and the resulting expected efficiency of the LightForce collision avoidance system. Results indicate that utilizing a network of four LightForce stations with 20 kilowatt lasers, 85% of all conjunctions with a probability of collision Pc > 10 (sup -6) can be mitigated

Implementation of an Open-Scenario, Long-Term Space Debris Simulation Approach

This paper provides a status update on the implementation of a flexible, long-term space debris simulation approach. The motivation is to build a tool that can assess the long-term impact of various options for debris-remediation, including the LightForce space debris collision avoidance concept that diverts objects using photon pressure [9]. State-of-the-art simulation approaches that assess the long-term development of the debris environment use either completely statistical approaches, or they rely on large time steps on the order of several days if they simulate the positions of single objects over time. They cannot be easily adapted to investigate the impact of specific collision avoidance schemes or de-orbit schemes, because the efficiency of a collision avoidance maneuver can depend on various input parameters, including ground station positions and orbital and physical parameters of the objects involved in close encounters (conjunctions). Furthermore, maneuvers take place on timescales much smaller than days. For example, LightForce only changes the orbit of a certain object (aiming to reduce the probability of collision), but it does not remove entire objects or groups of objects. In the same sense, it is also not straightforward to compare specific de-orbit methods in regard to potential collision risks during a de-orbit maneuver. To gain flexibility in assessing interactions with objects, we implement a simulation that includes every tracked space object in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and propagates all objects with high precision and variable time-steps as small as one second. It allows the assessment of the (potential) impact of physical or orbital changes to any object. The final goal is to employ a Monte Carlo approach to assess the debris evolution during the simulation time-frame of 100 years and to compare a baseline scenario to debris remediation scenarios or other scenarios of interest. To populate the initial simulation, we use the entire space-track object catalog in LEO. We then use a high precision propagator to propagate all objects over the entire simulation duration. If collisions are detected, the appropriate number of debris objects are created and inserted into the simulation framework. Depending on the scenario, further objects, e.g. due to new launches, can be added. At the end of the simulation, the total number of objects above a cut-off size and the number of detected collisions provide benchmark parameters for the comparison between scenarios. The simulation approach is computationally intensive as it involves tens of thousands of objects; hence we use a highly parallel approach employing up to a thousand cores on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer for a single run. This paper describes our simulation approach, the status of its implementation, the approach to developing scenarios and examples of first test runs

Preliminary Results from the CHOMPTT Laser Time-Transfer Mission

CubeSat Handling of Multisystem Precision Time Transfer (CHOMPTT) is a demonstration of precision ground-to-space time-transfer using a laser link to an orbiting CubeSat. The University of Florida-led mission is a collaboration with the NASA Ames Research Center. The 1U optical time-transfer payload was designed and built by the Precision Space Systems Lab at the University of Florida. The payload was integrated with a NASA Ames NOdeS-derived spacecraft bus to form a 3U spacecraft. The CHOMPTT satellite was successfully launched into low Earth orbit on 16 December 2018 on NASA’s ELaNa XIX mission using the Rocket Lab USA Electron vehicle. Here we describe the mission and report on the status of this unique technology demonstration. We use two satellite laser ranging facilities located at the Kennedy Space Center and Mount Stromlo, Australia to transmit nanosecond, 1064 nm laser pulses to the CHOMPTT CubeSat. These pulses are timed with an atomic clock on the ground and are detected by an avalanche photodetector on CHOMPTT. An event timer records the arrival time with respect to one of the two on-board chip-scale atomic clocks with an accuracy of 200 ps (6cm light-travel time). At the same time, a retroreflector returns the transmitted beam back to the ground. By comparing the transmitted and received times on the ground and the arrival time of the pulses at the CubeSat, the time difference between the ground and space clocks can be measured. This compact, power efficient and secure synchronization technology will enable advanced space navigation, communications, networking, and distributed aperture telescopes in the future

LightForce: An Update on Orbital Collision Avoidance Using Photon Pressure

We present an update on our research on collision avoidance using photon-pressure induced by ground-based lasers. In the past, we have shown the general feasibility of employing small orbit perturbations, induced by photon pressure from ground-based laser illumination, for collision avoidance in space. Possible applications would be protecting space assets from impacts with debris and stabilizing the orbital debris environment. Focusing on collision avoidance rather than de-orbit, the scheme avoids some of the security and liability implications of active debris removal, and requires less sophisticated hardware than laser ablation. In earlier research we concluded that one ground based system consisting of a 10 kW class laser, directed by a 1.5 m telescope with adaptive optics, could avoid a significant fraction of debris-debris collisions in low Earth orbit. This paper describes our recent efforts, which include refining our original analysis, employing higher fidelity simulations and performing experimental tracking tests. We investigate the efficacy of one or more laser ground stations for debris-debris collision avoidance and satellite protection using simulations to investigate multiple case studies. The approach includes modeling of laser beam propagation through the atmosphere, the debris environment (including actual trajectories and physical parameters), laser facility operations, and simulations of the resulting photon pressure. We also present the results of experimental laser debris tracking tests. These tests track potential targets of a first technical demonstration and quantify the achievable tracking performance